Thursday, November 1, 2012

Morning Briefing: It's Over


Morning Briefing

For November 1, 2012

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1. This Race is Over

We are less than a week from the election.

At this point, I just want it over. I want my life back. I'm worn out. I am struggling to still care now that I have cast my absentee ballot.

I think most Americans feel that way. The people of Ohio and Florida are begging for a return to TV ads for male enhancement drugs and self-lubricating catheters.

Right now, according to a Fox News poll, the race is tied. A National Journal poll has Obama up 5. A Rasmussen poll has Romney up 2. Nobody really knows who is ahead. I think Romney is. My Democrat friends think Obama is. Privately, everyone concedes they really don't know.

At this point, I have a hard time believing undecided voters are going to vote. The die is cast. There is little more either side can do to shift voters. Right now it is all about turning out the vote, not persuading people.

There is worry among a lot of Republicans who spend too much time on . . . please click here for the rest of the post

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2. On Polling Models, Skewed & Unskewed

There's a very large gulf between my conclusion, explained on Friday, that Obama is toast on Election Day and confident projections like Nate Silver's poll-reading model still giving the president (at last check) a 77.4% chance of victory. Let me explain why, and what that says about the difference between my approach and Nate's.  . . . please click here for the rest of the post

3.  MACT – The End of Affordable Coal

We have two different candidates who could win the US Presidential Election in six days. One claims that he favors "All of The Above" as an energy policy, but as you'll see below, that comes with a caveat. The other candidate favors US Domestic Energy Independence as a method of economic revival. To determine which man is serious, look closely at how they react to the idea of reliance upon coal-fired energy.

Let's say you saw the number one goal of the current US President is domestic energy independence or an all of the above energy policy. . . . please click here for the rest of the post

4.  Do you want to repeal Obamacare?

Claire McCaskill. Bob Casey Jr. Sherrod Brown. Bill Nelson. Tammy Baldwin. Tim Kaine. These Senators and Senate candidates all support or even voted for Obamacare. Importantly, they all have Republican opponents who have a chance to win, thanks in part to the growing support for Mitt Romney in their swing states.

If we want to defeat Obamacare, it is critical that we elect Republicans to as many Senate seats as we can. The sad fact is that we can't just get 50 and hope to win on a reconciliation tiebreak vote cast by Paul Ryan. You never know if the Democrats might find an anti-TEA party Republican who oppose the will of the voters and come to the other side. So we need to elect as many Republicans as we can. . . . please click here for the rest of the post

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Sincerely yours,

Erick Erickson

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