Saturday, May 20, 2023

Wall Street Breakfast: What Moved Markets

Stocks turned lower Friday after the White House and congressional Republicans reached an impasse in negotiations on the debt ceiling, and talks were broken off with no immediate plans to resume. But the declines were mild, suggesting the markets still believe a deal will be reached. There were also fresh signs of weakening consumer spending in poor quarterly results from Foot Locker, whose shares plunged 27% after the company said lower tax refunds and higher prices for gas, food and rents are hurting its customers' ability to spend on discretionary goods. And shares of regional banks tumbled after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said more mergers might be needed. But the three major stock market indexes scored gains for the week, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing 3% for its best weekly showing since March, while the S&P 500 jumped 1.6% and the Dow Jones Average added 0.4%. Read a breakdown of next week's major stock market events in Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch.
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Stocks turned lower Friday after the White House and congressional Republicans reached an impasse in negotiations on the debt ceiling, and talks were broken off with no immediate plans to resume. But the declines were mild, suggesting the markets still believe a deal will be reached. There were also fresh signs of weakening consumer spending in poor quarterly results from Foot Locker, whose shares plunged 27% after the company said lower tax refunds and higher prices for gas, food and rents are hurting its customers' ability to spend on discretionary goods. And shares of regional banks tumbled after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said more mergers might be needed. But the three major stock market indexes scored gains for the week, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing 3% for its best weekly showing since March, while the S&P 500 jumped 1.6% and the Dow Jones Average added 0.4%. Read a breakdown of next week's major stock market events in Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch.
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Financials
Renewed concerns over regional banks have been pushing regulators into uncomfortable areas, like facilitating and allowing the largest U.S. banks to get even bigger. Other things that have been invoked are "systemic risk exceptions," which allowed the FDIC to guarantee banks' uninsured deposits, and there are now even proposals for blanket deposit guarantees. The fear is that the situation could spiral if left unchecked and traditional policies may be overlooked to stamp out the crisis. Another hot topic of discussion has been centering around the short-selling of bank stocks. A short-selling ban in 2008 only lasted three weeks and many have argued that the restrictions were not only unnecessary, but actually harmed market quality and stability. (58 comments)
     
Financials
First quarter's 13F season kicked off this week, giving investors a chance to see what they bought and sold during Q1, like long positions, and call and put options, though shorts aren't included in the statements. Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne and David Tepper's Appaloosa showed sizable positions in stocks benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom, such as AI-focused Microsoft (MSFT), as well as Nvidia (NVDA), which is up over 100% YTD. Bill Ackman's Pershing Square and Daniel Loeb's Third Point also upped their stakes in Alphabet, which hastily released a chatbot called Bard in March after Microsoft poured billions of dollars into ChatGPT maker OpenAI. Investors additionally eyed the new positions of Warren Buffett - Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) took new stakes in Capital One Financial (COF) and alcoholic beverage maker Diageo (DEO). (125 comments)
     
Consumer
This week saw a flurry of data from the retail sector. Kicking off the festivities was Home Depot (HD), which fell 2% on Tuesday after comparable sales missed estimates and guidance came in light. Target (TGT) said its sales barely grew Y/Y, while a soft forecast was issued due to inventory impacts and retail theft. The macro data may be just as important as individual earnings, and many have an eye out for the figures as well. Data published on Tuesday showed U.S. April retail sales on their first upswing since January, but the 0.4% monthly expansion was still below the expected figure of 0.7%. In terms of Y/Y numbers, things have been steadily declining since last July, with the latest print coming in at 1.6% (and below the 4.9% inflation rate for the same period). Consumers have also continued to shift away from goods spending like furniture, home appliances and electronics - which was all the rage during the pandemic - into services spending such as restaurants, health and personal care, etc. (21 comments)
     
Tech
The next big tech battle is in the making after Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte signed a bill that would ban TikTok. It's the country's first bill that outright bans TikTok for private citizens, and is set to go into effect in January 2024 - barring an injunction or defeat in the legal system. Proponents of the measure claim it will protect users against "Chinese Communist Party surveillance" and from pro-Beijing misinformation reaching the public, with TikTok being owned by China-based ByteDance (BDNCE). The law will prohibit downloads of TikTok in the state by fining any "entity" - namely the app stores of Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL), or TikTok itself. $10,000 would be leveled per day for each time someone "is offered the ability" to access or download the app, though individual TikTok users would not be punished. (77 comments)
     
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Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is scrapping a near-$1B office campus it planned to build in Florida, as well as related plans to relocate some 2,000 of its California workers to the offices, citing "changing business conditions." Reading between those lines, though, it's part of the ongoing feud with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over what Disney has called "targeted retaliation" against the company through crackdowns on its special taxing district. The planned Lake Nona Town Center was set to bring more than 2,000 jobs to the Orlando region. Most of them complained harshly about the planned move, set up in 2021 amid what Disney Parks chief Josh D'Amaro called Florida's "business-friendly climate". Now D'Amaro says business conditions are changing, and "I hope we're able to" continue plans for $17B in construction at Orlando's Disney World. But he's now looking at moving some 200 employees that already relocated back to California. (701 comments)
     

U.S. Indices
Dow -0.3% to 33,427. S&P 500 +1.7% to 4,192. Nasdaq +3% to 12,658. Russell 2000 +1.9% to 1,774. CBOE Volatility Index -1.3% to 16.81.

S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Staples -1.7%. Utilities -4.4%. Financials +2.2%. Telecom +3.1%. Healthcare -0.7%. Industrials +1.2%. Information Technology +4.2%. Materials +0.7%. Energy +0.9%. Consumer Discretionary +2.6%. Real Estate -2.4%.

World Indices
London flat at 7,757. France +1% to 7,492. Germany +2.3% to 16,275. Japan +4.8% to 30,808. China +0.3% to 3,284. Hong Kong -0.9% to 19,451. India -0.5% to 61,730.

Commodities and Bonds
Crude Oil WTI +2.3% to $71.67/bbl. Gold -2% to $1,979.9/oz. Natural Gas +14.4% to 2.593. Ten-Year Bond Yield -0.2 bps to 3.691.

Forex and Cryptos
EUR/USD -0.38%. USD/JPY +1.63%. GBP/USD -0.09%. Bitcoin +0.3%. Litecoin +13.7%. Ethereum +0.9%. XRP +9.4%.

Top S&P 500 Gainers
Comerica (CMA) +20%. Zions Bancorporation, National Association (ZION) +19%. Western Digital (WDC) +16%. Capital One Financial (COF) +13%. Catalent (CTLT) +13%.

Top S&P 500 Losers
First Solar (FSLR) -12%. V.F. Corporation (VFC) -10%. PerkinElmer (PKI) -10%. Insulet (PODD) -9%. ONEOK. (OKE) -8%.

Where will the markets be headed next week? Current trends and ideas? Add your thoughts to the comments section.

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Thursday, May 11, 2023

***BREAKING NEWS*** 22 days away from a national default

SIGN our letter to the U.S. Congress calling on them to immediately raise the debt ceiling and reject unnecessary cuts that will put our families, children, jobs, and economy in danger! (When you click, you'll automatically sign on if we already have your information)
Take Action Now

Dear Rob,

Breaking news! We are an estimated 22 days away from the GOP-created debt ceiling crisis becoming a world-wide problem. [1] If Congress doesn't take immediate action to raise the debt ceiling, like Trump did three times on his watch [2], we will– for the first time in history – default, leading to a domino effect of economic downturn, layoffs, increased poverty, and a recession. No one wants that!

Earlier this week President Biden and Democrats in Congress held firm while the Republican leadership continued to play chicken with our families, children, and economy–insisting that they will only raise the debt ceiling if Democrats agree to MASSIVE and damaging cuts to health care, child care, nutrition programs, and veteran's programs. [3] And while Republicans profess concern about the debt, they are holding tight to the tax breaks that have massively enriched billionaires and big corporations during the Trump administration and COVID.

We know what our families and economy need and a man-made manufactured crisis is not it!

***TAKE ACTION NOW! Sign our letter to the U.S. Congress calling on them to immediately raise the debt ceiling and reject unnecessary cuts that will put our families, children, jobs, and economy in danger! -When you click, you'll automatically sign on if we already have your information.

Here's what's going on: Extremist Republicans in the House of Representatives, led by Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) are using a threat to not raise the debt ceiling (which would cause economic chaos in the U.S. and around the world) in an attempt to force Democrats to cut critically important programs that lift families and the economy like Medicaid, Medicare, food stamps (SNAP), WIC, child care, veteran's programs, and other vital programs that are necessary to our nation's families, businesses, and economy. Speaker McCarthy and Republicans in Congress are bullying our families with this ultimatum: Send our economy into a tailspin through default OR cut the very investments – like Medicaid, food and rental assistance, child care, and more – that allow families to thrive. Meanwhile, their plan racks up more debt by allowing billionaires to evade their taxes, then asks families to foot the bill.

This is not a test. Not raising the debt ceiling, i.e. defaulting, would lead to 6 million veterans and their beneficiaries losing benefits, families seeing monthly rental and child care assistance delayed, 65 million people would not get their Social Security checks, and small businesses around the country could see payments from the federal government delayed, hitting a range of industries, from construction and cleaning services to health care and food services. 

A default of any form would almost definitely catapult our already struggling economy into a recession leading to layoffs, increased poverty, and health risks. [3] That's why Congress has always raised the debt ceiling. The irresponsible and harmful budget cuts Republicans are suggesting in return for avoiding default will mean more families and children will go hungry–41.5 million people could lose SNAP (food stamps) and 200,000 low-income children could lose access to Head Start, while 100,000 others would lose the child care assistance they need to access early learning. [5]

If policymakers really care about deficit reduction, they can make the rich and corporations pay their fair share of taxes, not take food, childcare, and healthcare away from children and families!!

The real-world impacts of the Republican manufactured crisis can't be ignored! We need to speak out NOW to protect our children, families, jobs, and economy! 

We know the debate about the debt ceiling is confusing – that's why we made a video to explain it! Please watch and share our video explaining what this "debt ceiling default" conversation is all about and then sign our letter calling on Congress to "raise the debt ceiling without delay!" -When you click, you'll automatically sign on if we already have your information.

The message we are sending to Congress is short and simple–yet incredibly important:

Dear Member of Congress:

With extreme urgency, we are calling on you to pass a clean raise in the debt ceiling without any cuts to funding, barriers to nutrition or health programs, or additional political maneuvers that put the health, safety, and well-being of our children, families, and economy at risk.

Sincerely,

There is a path forward that values our families and communities - that puts no limit on the what our families and children can achieve. We can invest in Medicaid so that no matter your zip code or how old you are, you have access to high quality affordable health care. We can invest in SNAP so that more families aren't staring down hunger amidst rising food costs. We can ensure that more families have the income they need to provide the basics for themselves and their children. We can invest in child care, paid leave, and home and community based services, so that our families can balance work and caring for our loved ones. And we can afford to do these things by asking the wealthy and corporations to pay their fair share in taxes.

SIGN our letter now and make sure our elected leaders know that we will not stand for our families being bullied into an unnecessary political and economic crisis! It's important that as many people know what is going on as possible. The Republicans are banking on the fact that they can play chicken with our families and no one will notice. Once you watch our video and sign our letter, share this email with your friends and family so they can understand fully what the debt ceiling debate is all about. 

Together we are a powerful voice!

-Elyssa, Donna, Kristin, Hanna, Jenny, Nate, Lucrecer, dream, and the whole MomsRising.org & MamásConPoder Team


References:
[1] "U.S. Could hit debt ceiling by June 1, much sooner than expected Yellen warns." CNBC.
[2] "Did GOP vote to Raise Debt Ceiling 3 Times with No Preconditions During Trump Era." Snoopes.
[3] "Impasse persists after Biden and congressional leaders hold 'tense' meeting on debt ceiling." NBC News.
[4] "5 Reasons House Republicans Should Stop Using Debt Ceiling as A Bargaining Chip." Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
[5] "Devastating Impacts of Proposed House Republican Cuts." House Committee on Appropriations.

 


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