Sunday, July 2, 2023

Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead

Economic releases covering construction spending, factory orders, and initial jobless claims will be sandwiched around the 4th of July holiday before the June jobs report lands on the laps of investors on July 7. Economists forecast 213K jobs were added during the month and for the unemployment rate to dip to 3.6% from 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to be 0.3% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year.Major banks will also be watched closely next week after the group passed the Federal Reserve's stress tests that simulated a severe recession. Analysts expect dividends to be increased by most large banks, but share repurchases are expected to be relatively subdued in the near term until the direction of the economy becomes more clear. Bank of New York Mellon (BK), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Truist Financial (TFC), Citigroup (C), and State Street (STT) are some of the banks in the spotlight for capital allocation developments. Seeking Alpha analyst Logan Kane thinks that while large banks are likely to weather the storm, dozens of smaller banks may fail over the next 12-18 months due to risky real estate loans and falling deposits. A light week of calendar events means that Apple's (AAPL) dalliance with a $3T market cap and Tesla's (TSLA) Q2 deliveries report could attract outsized attention.
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Welcome to the Sunday edition of Wall Street Breakfast, which previews events for investors to watch during the upcoming week. If you want to receive this a day earlier, follow Stocks to Watch and select the option to receive email notifications.

Top News

Economic releases covering construction spending, factory orders, and initial jobless claims will be sandwiched around the 4th of July holiday before the June jobs report lands on the laps of investors on July 7. Economists forecast 213K jobs were added during the month and for the unemployment rate to dip to 3.6% from 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to be 0.3% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year.

Major banks will also be watched closely next week after the group passed the Federal Reserve's stress tests that simulated a severe recession. Analysts expect dividends to be increased by most large banks, but share repurchases are expected to be relatively subdued in the near term until the direction of the economy becomes more clear. Bank of New York Mellon (BK), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Truist Financial (TFC), Citigroup (C), and State Street (STT) are some of the banks in the spotlight for capital allocation developments. Seeking Alpha analyst Logan Kane thinks that while large banks are likely to weather the storm, dozens of smaller banks may fail over the next 12-18 months due to risky real estate loans and falling deposits. A light week of calendar events means that Apple's (AAPL) dalliance with a $3T market cap and Tesla's (TSLA) Q2 deliveries report could attract outsized attention.

     
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Earnings

Earnings spotlight: Thursday, July 6 - Levi Strauss (NYSE:LEVI), Kura Sushi (NASDAQ:KRUS), and Simulations Plus (SLP).

Earnings spotlight: Friday, July 7 - AZZ (AZZ) and Urban One (UONE).

Stocks
Volatility watch: Short interest on ImmunityBio (NASDAQ:IBRX) is at 19.15% and Kura Sushi (KRUS) is at 22.67% of total float. Options trading volume is elevated on Vroom (VRM) and FibroGen (FGEN) once again. Virgin Galactic (SPCE) continues to see huge price swings as longs and shorts battle it out.

Quant ratings: Stocks with recent quant rating changes include Roivant Sciences (ROIV) to Strong Buy from Hold, Olin Corporation (OLN) to Buy from Hold, and Beyond Air (XAIR) to Strong Sell from Hold. See the stocks with the very highest rated Seeking Alpha Quant Ratings.


Dividends

Dividend watch: Companies forecast to boost their payouts include John B. Sanfilippo (JBSS) to $1.00 annually from $0.75, PNC Financial (PNC) to $1.60 quarterly from $1.50, and Bank OZK (OZK) to $0.36 quarterly from $0.35. See Seeking Alpha's list of Quick Dividend Stock Picks.


Events

Corporate events: The holiday-shortened week has a nearly empty agenda of corporate events or conferences in the U.S. Across the Atlantic Ocean, Coty (NYSE:COTY) will hold a Paris Investor Conference on July 6. The company said the event will provide a comprehensive overview of Coty, its strategic pillars, and value proposition to the European investment community. Recent reports suggested Coty (COTY) is considering exploring a dual listing on the Paris Stock Exchange. In the healthcare sector, the highly-anticipated FDA action decision on the full approval of Eisai and Biogen's Alzheimer's disease drug Leqembi will be watched. An advisory panel of the FDA voted unanimously in June to recommend full approval of Leqembi. See a detailed list of key events for next week in Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch.

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Saturday, July 1, 2023

Wall Street Breakfast: What Moved Markets

Wall Street's major averages closed out a strong first half of the year on an upbeat note Friday, powered by technology stocks as Apple achieved a historic $3 trillion market capitalization. Moreover, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge - the core personal consumption expenditures index - moderated in May on both a month-to-month and year-to-year basis, easing some of the rate concerns that have weighed on markets recently. All 11 S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the day, led by the technology with close to a 2% gain. Notably, the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite indexes all notched gains for the week, month, quarter and first half of the year. For the week, the three benchmarks all gained about 2%. For June, the S&P and Nasdaq both added about 6.5%, and the Dow's 4.6% gain was the best showing since November. For the second quarter, the S&P's 8.3% jump was its best quarter since Q4 2021, while the Nasdaq surged nearly 13% and the Dow added 3.4%. Finally, for the first six months of 2023, the Nasdaq exploded 31.7% higher for its best first half since 1983, and the S&P soared 15.9% for its best first half since 2019, while the Dow added a more modest 3.8%. The second half of the trading year starts off with a holiday-shortened week. Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch lists the key events for the week ahead.
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Top News
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Wall Street's major averages closed out a strong first half of the year on an upbeat note Friday, powered by technology stocks as Apple achieved a historic $3 trillion market capitalization. Moreover, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge - the core personal consumption expenditures index - moderated in May on both a month-to-month and year-to-year basis, easing some of the rate concerns that have weighed on markets recently. All 11 S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the day, led by the technology with close to a 2% gain. Notably, the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite indexes all notched gains for the week, month, quarter and first half of the year. For the week, the three benchmarks all gained about 2%. For June, the S&P and Nasdaq both added about 6.5%, and the Dow's 4.6% gain was the best showing since November. For the second quarter, the S&P's 8.3% jump was its best quarter since Q4 2021, while the Nasdaq surged nearly 13% and the Dow added 3.4%. Finally, for the first six months of 2023, the Nasdaq exploded 31.7% higher for its best first half since 1983, and the S&P soared 15.9% for its best first half since 2019, while the Dow added a more modest 3.8%. The second half of the trading year starts off with a holiday-shortened week. Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch lists the key events for the week ahead.
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Global
Investors started off the week digesting an aborted mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, shaking expectations of what could come next in the Kremlin's war in Ukraine. The bitter feud has been ongoing for months, with Prigozhin accusing the Kremlin of battlefield losses due to shortfalls in financing, weapons and even recruitment. Markets viewed the situation as a non-event though, but traders were on edge in case things morphed into something bigger - like a full-out coup, uprising or even a civil war. (205 comments)
     
IPOs
Things began to defrost for the IPO market after being frozen for much of the past 18 months. This week saw a string of IPOs, including Korean BBQ group GEN Restaurant (GENK), which hoped to replicate the recent success of Cava (CAVA), while four other listings priced and raised over $250M each. The largest was Vesta Real Estate (VTMX), but SA Investing Group Leader Donovan Jones is cautious about the company given the history of depreciation of the peso against the dollar. Other IPOs were Kodiak Gas Services (KGS), Savers Value Village (SVV) and Fidelis (FIHL). (5 comments)
     
Central Banking
More policy tightening should be expected from the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England, according to statements made at the ECB's annual retreat. Central bank heads of Europe, the U.S., U.K. and Japan met to discuss how to get inflation back to target amid a fragmenting global economy. "We still have ground to cover... we will very likely hike again in July," said ECB President Christine Lagarde, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he wouldn't take moving rates up at consecutive meetings off the table. The Bank for International Settlements also recently warned that the final stretch of monetary tightening will likely be the toughest. (20 comments)
     
Financials
All 23 banks met minimum capital requirements under the Federal Reserve's 2023 bank stress tests and would still be able to lend in a hypothetical "severe global recession." The annual health checks dictate the required size of each bank's "capital buffer" - an extra cushion of capital set aside on top of the regulatory minimum needed for daily business. "The bigger changes for banks are likely to come later, as the Fed contemplates new rules tied to Basel III Endgame and recent bank failures," wrote SA analyst Stephen Simpson. "Capital requirement changes could meaningfully impact the profitability of regional banks," like Fifth Third (FITB), Key (KEY), and others. (174 comments)
     
M&A
Final arguments were presented in a closely watched case that could determine the fate of the biggest tech acquisition in U.S. history. The trial included testimony from Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella and Activision's (ATVI) Bobby Kotick as they faced off against lawyers from the Federal Trade Commission. Simply put, the FTC believes that the $69B tie-up between the company behind Xbox and one of the best-known game developers would harm competition, but there are others who feel otherwise. "It was right at the end of the hearings that the judge reminded one of the FTC lawyers that it's not the harm to Sony that she cares about; it's any harm to consumers," Chris DeMuth Jr., Investing Group Leader of Sifting the World, told Seeking Alpha. (29 comments)
     
Weekly movement

U.S. Indices
Dow +2% to 34,408. S&P 500 +2.4% to 4,450. Nasdaq +2.2% to 13,788. Russell 2000 +3.7% to 1,889. CBOE Volatility Index +1.1% to 13.59.

S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Staples +0.6%. Utilities +0.7%. Financials +2.9%. Telecom +0.4%. Healthcare +0.6%. Industrials +3.9%. Information Technology +2.9%. Materials +4%. Energy +4.8%. Consumer Discretionary +2.5%. Real Estate +5.%.

World Indices
London +0.9% to 7,532. France +3.3% to 7,400. Germany +2% to 16,148. Japan +1.2% to 33,189. China +0.1% to 3,202. Hong Kong +0.1% to 18,916. India +2.8% to 64,719.

Commodities and Bonds
Crude Oil WTI +1.9% to $70.45/bbl. Gold +0.4% to $1,927.8/oz. Natural Gas +1.7% to 2.774. Ten-Year Bond Yield -0.2 bps to 3.841.

Forex and Cryptos
EUR/USD +0.21%. USD/JPY +0.43%. GBP/USD -0.12%. Bitcoin -0.4%. Litecoin +19.6%. Ethereum +2.2%. XRP -3.9%.

Top S&P 500 Gainers
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) +19%. Generac Holdings (GNRC) +16%. Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) +13%. Caesars Entertainment (CZR) +13%. Charter Communications (CHTR) +13%.

Top S&P 500 Losers
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) -9%. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) -8%. Illumina (ILMN) -7%. McCormick & Company (MKC) -7%. General Mills (GIS) -6%.

Where will the markets be headed next week? Current trends and ideas? Add your thoughts to the comments section.

Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast Podcast
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.