Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead

The latest update on inflation in the U.S. will drop on the lap of investors, with June CPI report scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Economists forecast headline inflation to fall to 3.0% from 4.0% in May and core inflation to be reported at 5.0% from 5.3% in May. A CPI surprise could reset expectations on the direction of the Federal Reserve. At publication time, traders were pricing in a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at the meeting later July 25-26. The earnings season kicks off with major banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C), some of the heavyweights stepping into the earnings confessional. The readout on what major banks say about deposit flows and loan growth is also anticipated to have an impact on regional banks' stocks. Some analysts have warned that large banks' earnings have peaked as net interest income is likely to continue to decline, credit costs are gradually normalizing and increasing, and expenses are pressured by inflation. EPS growth is also being hurt as banks position for likely regulatory changes by adding liquidity, increasing debt capital, and several holding back on share repurchases. Outside the banking sector, companies due to spill numbers include Delta Air Lines (DAL) (preview), UnitedHealth Group (UNH) (analysis), and PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) (analysis). Looking at the earnings season as a whole, there have been 62 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 39 positive, which London Stock Exchange Group computes is an N/P ratio of 1.6 for the S&P 500 Index. This compares to a long-term average of 2.5 and prior four-quarter average of 2.0.

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Welcome to the Sunday edition of Wall Street Breakfast, which previews events for investors to watch during the upcoming week. If you want to receive this a day earlier, follow Stocks to Watch and select the option to receive email notifications. Top News The latest update on inflation in the U.S. will drop on the lap of investors, with June CPI report scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Economists forecast headline inflation to fall to 3.0% from 4.0% in May and core inflation to be reported at 5.0% from 5.3% in May. A CPI surprise could reset expectations on the direction of the Federal Reserve. At publication time, traders were pricing in a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at the meeting later July 25-26. The earnings season kicks off with major banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C), some of the heavyweights stepping into the earnings confessional. The readout on what major banks say about deposit flows and loan growth is also anticipated to have an impact on regional banks' stocks. Some analysts have warned that large banks' earnings have peaked as net interest income is likely to continue to decline, credit costs are gradually normalizing and increasing, and expenses are pressured by inflation. EPS growth is also being hurt as banks position for likely regulatory changes by adding liquidity, increasing debt capital, and several holding back on share repurchases. Outside the banking sector, companies due to spill numbers include Delta Air Lines (DAL) (preview), UnitedHealth Group (UNH) (analysis), and PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) (analysis). Looking at the earnings season as a whole, there have been 62 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 39 positive, which London Stock Exchange Group computes is an N/P ratio of 1.6 for the S&P 500 Index. This compares to a long-term average of 2.5 and prior four-quarter average of 2.0.       Earnings Earnings spotlight: Monday, July 10 - Helen of Troy (HELE), WD-40 Company (WDFC), and PriceSmart (PSMT). Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, July 11 - Byrna Technologies (BYRN). Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, July 12 - MillerKnoll (MLKN) and AngioDynamics (ANGO). Earnings spotlight: Thursday, July 13 - PepsiCo (PEP), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and Conagra Brands (CAG). Seeking Alpha analyst Dilantha De Silva highlighted key areas to focus on ahead of DAL's Q2 earnings report. Earnings spotlight: Friday, July 14 - UnitedHealth Group (UNH), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), State Street (STT), BlackRock (BLK), and Citigroup (C). Seeking Alpha analyst  JR Research noted that Citigroup stock is still undervalued relative to its financial sector peers.  IPOs IPO and spinoff watch: No new offerings are expected to be priced next week as the IPO market cools off from what was a burst of activity in June when five IPOs raised $1.3B in aggregate proceeds to mark the most active month for IPOs since May 2022 when $1.1B in proceeds was raised. CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA), which had the splashiest debut of the bunch, will have its quiet period expire on July 10 to open up analysts to post ratings. The quiet period also ends on Azitra (NYSE:AZTR) and BranchOut Food (NASDAQ:BOF), which are both down from their IPO pricing levels. Skyward Specialty Insurance Group (NASDAQ:SKWD) and MGO Global (NASDAQ:MGOL) are also on watch with blocks of shares coming off their IPO lockup expiration. Dividends Dividend watch: Companies forecast to boost their quarterly payouts include Marsh & McLennan (MMC) to $0.65 from $0.59, State Street (STT) to $0.69 from $0.63, New Jersey Resources (NJR) to $0.415 from $0.39, and Cummins (CMI) to $1.66 from $1.57. See Seeking Alpha's list of Quick Dividend Stock Picks. Events Corporate events: Daimler Truck (OTCPK:DTRUY) will hold its first Capital Markets Day as a standalone company on July 11. Deutsche Bank expects the German trucking giant to provide a tech update that includes profitability indicators for diesel versus electric trucks as well as a roadmap until 2030. An announcement of a buyback plan is seen as a potential share price catalyst. Sprinklr (CXM) will hold an Investor Day event on July 12, with top executives expected to provide an overview of the company's market opportunities, new product innovations, various use cases, and Sprinklr's financial outlook. Notable events in the healthcare sector during the week include Phase 3 topline data being reported by Journey Medical Corporation (NASDAQ:DERM) and Phase 3 PK data from Fortress Biotech (NASDAQ:FBIO) on the safety of DFD-29. The 2nd Annual RNA Therapeutics Summit will include participation from Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), Avidity Biosciences (RNA), and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), while ProQR Therapeutics N.V. (PRQR) will participate in the RNA Editing Summit. See a detailed list of key events for next week in Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch. Stocks Barron's mentions: While the focus in the financials sector this week will be on the earnings reports of major banks, the publication makes the case that some smaller banks may be value picks. In what is described as a classic case of throwing the baby out with the bath water, small banks with thriving businesses have seen their share prices fall sharply since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. However, it was noted that small banks have seen their deposits remain stable, revenue increase, and loan volumes hold steady as customers from various industries seek money to grow their businesses. That has all added up to a boost in profits for some of the underappreciated players. The list of recommended small bank stocks includes Axos Financial (NYSE:AX), Bread Financial Holdings (NYSE:BFH), First Financial Bancorp. (NASDAQ:FFBC), OFG Bancorp (NYSE:OFG), Preferred Bank (NASDAQ:PFBC), and S&T Bancorp (NASDAQ:STBA). Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast Podcast Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.
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Wall Street Breakfast: What Moved Markets

Stocks stumbled through a choppy trading session to end lower Friday, as investors digested the latest nonfarm payrolls report following hotter than expected private hiring data the previous day. The U.S. government report showed the economy created 209,000 jobs in June, well below expectations and the smallest increase since the end of 2020. The data was taken by some as a sign that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes were finally starting to cool the labor market, but other details of the report such as stronger than forecast wage gains suggested the Fed may have reason to resume raising rates later this month. After the mixed data, equities may be ripe for a pullback following big gains in June and in the second quarter, which could lead to choppiness and consolidation heading into earnings season. Yields were mixed on Friday. The longer-end 10-year yield was up 2 basis points to 4.06% while the more rate-sensitive 2-year yield was down 7 basis points to 4.94%. For the week, the Dow Jones dropped 1.9% - its largest weekly decline since March - the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.9%. Read a preview of next week's major events in Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch.

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Top News Shutterstock Stocks stumbled through a choppy trading session to end lower Friday, as investors digested the latest nonfarm payrolls report following hotter than expected private hiring data the previous day. The U.S. government report showed the economy created 209,000 jobs in June, well below expectations and the smallest increase since the end of 2020. The data was taken by some as a sign that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes were finally starting to cool the labor market, but other details of the report such as stronger than forecast wage gains suggested the Fed may have reason to resume raising rates later this month. After the mixed data, equities may be ripe for a pullback following big gains in June and in the second quarter, which could lead to choppiness and consolidation heading into earnings season. Yields were mixed on Friday. The longer-end 10-year yield was up 2 basis points to 4.06% while the more rate-sensitive 2-year yield was down 7 basis points to 4.94%. For the week, the Dow Jones dropped 1.9% - its largest weekly decline since March - the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.9%. Read a preview of next week's major events in Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch. Featured Here's how you can be a better investor with Premium Research shows that individual investors collectively underperform the stock market, because their decisions are often driven by emotions. We believe that as an investor you can do really well if you find opportunities based on 360-degree analysis - not hype. Seeking Alpha Premium's unparalleled stock coverage gives you the insights you need to stay ahead of the curve. With timely insights on stocks, ETFs, and more, you can track the investments that matter most to you. Plus, you can discover hidden gems and compelling new ideas with our exclusive stock ratings. Go Premium and experience its incredible value for yourself. Go Premium now Economy Relief or responsibility? The Supreme Court has overturned the Biden administration's student-debt forgiveness plan in a 6-3 decision, ruling it exceeded the authority Congress granted to the executive branch. The plan, struck down on Friday, would have wiped off $430B in loans from the government's books, but there are already some alternatives that are in the making. "This carries huge implications for inflation, consumer discretionary spending, and the distribution of wealth in the U.S.," writes SA analyst Logan Kane, analyzing winners and losers from the landmark ruling. Related student loan stocks, including SoFi Technologies (SOFI), Sallie Mae (SLM), Navient (NAVI), and Nelnet (NNI), have been jittery since the ruling. (916 comments)       Tech Critical technology Call it a trade war, a tech war, or even a chip war, but the fight between the world's two largest economies is ratcheting up to the next level. China has unveiled a set of national security restrictions that are likely to further disrupt the global supply chain by placing export controls on chipmaking metals gallium and germanium. The U.S. has opposed the latest restrictions and plans to consult with its allies to address the issue. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the top U.S. economic policymaker, is currently in China meeting senior officials to help defuse tensions with Beijing. (65 comments)       Tech Twitter killer Instagram has launched Threads, its short-posting text app, as Meta Platforms (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg takes on Elon Musk and Twitter. "Let's do this," Zuckerberg declared, before the app garnered 30M downloads within 24 hours. Musk's response? "It is infinitely preferable to be attacked by strangers on Twitter, than indulge in the false happiness of hide-the-pain Instagram." But his bravado quickly faded, with Twitter threatening to sue Meta. Many analysts have lauded Threads, with some projecting a long-term sales boost for Meta, while Investing Group Leader Daniel Jones acknowledged some risks associated with the launch, but believes the good outweighs the bad. (148 comments)       Economy Making sense of it all The Labor Department's closely-watched nonfarm payrolls report showed that the U.S. added fewer jobs than expected. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 209K in June, falling short of the 225K expected and sliding from 306K in May, which was the second-strongest month for job creation this year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made plain last month that it will take "some softening of the labor market for inflation to come down" closer to 2%. A slew of data this week pointed to a tight labor market - the ADP's measure of private hiring smashed expectations and the Challenger Job Cuts Report signaled a sizable drop in job cuts. Conversely, the JOLTS report showed a fall in job openings, and the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims rose over the past week. (6 comments)       Central Banking FOMC minutes Some officials at the Federal Reserve's June meeting favored raising the key policy rate by 25 basis points, according to FOMC minutes, which cited a still-tight labor market, stronger-than-expected economic activity, and persistently high inflation. On the other hand, "almost all participants judged it appropriate to maintain the target range at 5.00%-5.25% at this meeting" to give them more time to assess the impact of the tightening cycle on the economy. The minutes did little to move markets, with Wall Street's major averages ending slightly lower on Wednesday. "The Fed may have a more hawkish stance on the issue of raising interest rates than previously anticipated," said Investing Group Leader Daniel Jones. (74 comments)       Weekly movement U.S. Indices Dow -2% to 33,735. S&P 500 -1.2% to 4,399. Nasdaq -0.9% to 13,661. Russell 2000 -1.3% to 1,865. CBOE Volatility Index +9.1% to 14.83. S&P 500 Sectors Consumer Staples -1.1%. Utilities -0.2%. Financials -0.5%. Telecom -0.3%. Healthcare -2.9%. Industrials -1%. Information Technology -1.5%. Materials -2.%. Energy -0.7%. Consumer Discretionary -0.3%. Real Estate +0.5%. World Indices London -3.7% to 7,257. France -3.9% to 7,112. Germany -3.4% to 15,603. Japan -2.4% to 32,388. China -0.2% to 3,197. Hong Kong -2.9% to 18,366. India +0.9% to 65,280. Commodities and Bonds Crude Oil WTI +4.4% to $73.71/bbl. Gold +0.1% to $1,930.5/oz. Natural Gas -8.4% to 2.563. Ten-Year Bond Yield -0.2 bps to 4.066. Forex and Cryptos EUR/USD +0.54%. USD/JPY -1.55%. GBP/USD +1.05%. Bitcoin -1.1%. Litecoin -9.%. Ethereum -3.3%. XRP -1.4%. Top S&P 500 Gainers Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) +12%. Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) +11%. Schlumberger (SLB) +10%. Global Payments (GPN) +9%. Bunge (BG) +9%. Top S&P 500 Losers NIKE (NKE) -8%. Generac Holdings (GNRC) -8%. Micron Technology (MU) -6%. MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) -5%. Best Buy Co (BBY) -5%. Where will the markets be headed next week? Current trends and ideas? Add your thoughts to the comments section. Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast Podcast Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.
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